For four years straight, world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler had this thing wrapped up before the fall even started. Nobody’s wrapping anything up early in 2026. This has turned into a legit free-for-all, the kind of season where half a dozen golfers can point to their year and say, fair enough, that’s a real case. Major champions, players stacking three wins, a couple of names that would’ve gotten laughed out of the room back in January. Here’s who we think is in the running and why calling a favorite right now feels borderline reckless.
Scottie Scheffler
The numbers still say Scheffler’s the best golfer, full stop. Strokes gained total, scoring average, greens in regulation, bogey avoidance – he’s on top of all of it, and it isn’t especially close. He shows up near the lead almost every single week now, to the point where a top five from him doesn’t even register as a headline anymore. That’s kind of the problem, actually. The trophies just haven’t matched the numbers this year. The American Express early on, then the FedEx St. Jude once the playoffs started, and that’s the whole win column. Majors were rough. Runner-up at the Masters, tied 14th at the PGA Championship, tied fourth at the U.S. Open. Close every single time, nothing to show for it. He could genuinely be the best player in the world and still lose this vote, which says a lot about where 2026 has landed.
Wyndham Clark
Rewind to spring and Wyndham Clark’s name wasn’t anywhere near this conversation, not seriously. Then he wins at THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson, and follows it with a wire-to-wire victory at the U.S. Open, the second major of his career. Then, because apparently the story needed one more twist, he wins the BMW Championship too. Three wins, one of them a major, right when everybody else is still hunting for that kind of moment. Voters who care about big stages over raw quantity will have a hard time finding a better résumé than this one.
Matt Fitzpatrick and Chris Gotterup
Plenty of voters keep it basic: most wins get the trophy, end of discussion. By that math, Matt Fitzpatrick and Chris Gotterup match Wyndham Clark with three wins each. Fitzpatrick caught fire for about six weeks in the spring, Valspar Championship, RBC Heritage, and the Zurich Classic with his brother Alex along for that last one. Gotterup followed suit with the Sony Open, the WM Phoenix Open, and sealed it at the John Deere Classic. Neither has a major, and that’s going to cost them a little in a field this loaded, but three wins is three wins. Good luck telling a Tour pro that doesn’t count for something.
Cameron Young
Ask around the range right now and one name keeps coming up, and it’s probably not who most people would’ve guessed back in June. Cameron Young has two wins, one of them the big one at The Players Championship, plus a heartbreaker of a runner-up at The Open at Royal Birkdale, a single shot behind Ryan Fox. Golfweek columnist Eamon Lynch outright called Young the favorite over Scheffler, and it’s a fair argument, honestly. One marquee win plus showing up when it mattered most can beat a pile of top fives, depending who’s marking the ballot.
Rory McIlroy
McIlroy told reporters before the BMW Championship he had “no chance” at this award. Sure, Rory. Back-to-back Masters titles have a funny way of undercutting that kind of modesty. That win made him just the fourth player ever to go back-to-back at Augusta, joining Jack Nicklaus, Tiger Woods, and Nick Faldo, and pushed him to six majors for his career. He wasn’t finished there either, finishing a close third at the BMW Championship. A Green Jacket buys a lot of patience from voters, whatever the rest of the ledger says.
How the Winner Gets Decided
Worth remembering: there’s no formula, no spreadsheet, no points chase deciding this one. PGA TOUR members vote, plain and simple, and everyone weighs it differently. One person votes for whoever was impossible to beat on a random Thursday in June. Another only cares about major championships. That split is exactly why nobody can call this race with any confidence right now, and it’s a big reason the TOUR Championship at East Lake might end up mattering more than anyone expected heading into the year.
Final Word
It’s hard to forget a season with this many real, defensible arguments sitting on the table at the same time. Scheffler’s got the numbers, Clark’s got the major pedigree, Fitzpatrick and Gotterup have the win totals, Young’s got a signature win plus a major near-miss, and McIlroy’s got a piece of golf history nobody can take back. Whoever walks away with this earned it the hard way, in one of the tightest years this award has ever seen.